Water AetherwingTier 2
at Inferno Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 64.8% | +11.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.9% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.5% | -3.4 |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 5.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -1.3 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 5.9% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 40.1% | -9.5 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.9% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 52.4% | +2.3 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.7 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 5 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 5 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Undercurrent Vantage, Cerulean Decree, Expose Darkness. Losers more often ran: Languid Toadtroll, Aetheric Calibration, Reposition.
Show all 21 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 11 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Undercurrent Vantage | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 2 | |
| Languid Toadtroll | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 2 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +0.60 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ranger Boots | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ranger Strides | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Take Aim | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Expose Darkness | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Refreshing Charge | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Aetheric Calibration | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Reposition | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Snow White, Weiss Queen | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Overlapping Visages | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reveal the Hidden | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backstep | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Stolen Chance | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |